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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out HFX Wanderers FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 16, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 0.93 xG and Forge 1.28 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Forge attack 1.24 / defence 0.60, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 24% | Draw 34% | Forge 42%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 58%, Forge 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Forge's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights