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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC finished level at 1-1 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.11 xG and Cavalry FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Cavalry FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.75, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 31% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 39%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 58%, Cavalry FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights