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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of HFX Wanderers FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 0-3 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.27 xG and Cavalry FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Cavalry FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 37% | Draw 34% | Cavalry FC 29%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 58%, Cavalry FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights