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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat HFX Wanderers FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat HFX Wanderers FC 0-1 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 28, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.74 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.25 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. HFX Wanderers FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.20 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 46% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 24%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Atlético Ottawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 62%, Atlético Ottawa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights