🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

HFX Wanderers FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atlético Ottawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC beat Atlético Ottawa 2-0 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.27 xG and Atlético Ottawa 2.04 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.37 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 21% | Draw 25% | Atlético Ottawa 53%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a HFX Wanderers FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 58%, Atlético Ottawa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HFX Wanderers FC win broke the near-deadlock. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights