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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Forge run riot with a 3-0 hammering of York United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat York United 3-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 28, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.73 xG and York United 0.71 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.09 / defence 0.68 against York United attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 59% | Draw 29% | York United 12%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 53%, York United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights