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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Forge and Vancouver FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge and Vancouver FC finished level at 1-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 26, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 2.50 xG and Vancouver FC 0.97 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Forge fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.14 / defence 0.70 against Vancouver FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 69% | Draw 20% | Vancouver FC 11%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 53%, Vancouver FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Forge (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights