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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Forge run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Valour 5-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 17, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 2.30 xG and Valour 1.23 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valour landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Valour attack 1.05 / defence 1.43, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 61% | Draw 21% | Valour 18%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 52%, Valour 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Valour's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Forge (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights