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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Forge run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Pacific FC 4-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 25, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 2.29 xG and Pacific FC 0.65 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.06 / defence 0.72 against Pacific FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 73% | Draw 20% | Pacific FC 7%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 53%, Pacific FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pacific FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Forge (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights