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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Forge cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Pacific FC 2-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 15, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.77 xG and Pacific FC 0.86 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Pacific FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 57% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 16%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 54%, Pacific FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pacific FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights