Forge 2-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Forge (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Forge face Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tim Hortons Field plays host to Forge versus Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Forge's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Forge's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Pacific FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Forge, 0 for Pacific FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Forge winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Forge half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Pacific FC half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 52% versus Pacific FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 58% | Pacific FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.68 xG and Pacific FC 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.340 / defence 0.774 | Pacific FC attack 0.729 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.222. Forge carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Forge's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Forge games / 47 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 60% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Pacific FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Forge (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Forge 60% | Pacific FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 60% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Forge 1.68 / Pacific FC 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.340 / def 0.774 | Pacific FC attack 0.729 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Forge (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Pacific FC xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Pacific FC kick off?
Forge vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Forge 2 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Forge vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Pacific FC part of?
Forge vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 60% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Forge and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
Record (3 meetings): Forge 2W | Draws 1 | Pacific FC 0W.
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.34x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacific FC's attack (0.73x) against Forge's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.87
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Forge xG
Total xG
2.37
0.69
Pacific FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
3%
38.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Forge and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Forge and 0.69 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forge come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 14D 13L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.32 PPG from 50 outings (18W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Forge against 1.32 for Pacific FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Forge's home form reads 13W 8D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Forge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 games (1.66 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Pacific FC away?
Forge's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.88 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Forge or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Forge go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forge have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Forge
1
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 8, Pacific FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Pacific FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 64%, Pacific FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Forge) and 52% (Pacific FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Forge's games and 52% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Forge's matches and 52% of Pacific FC's.
Do Forge and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 2-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.68 xG and Pacific FC 0.69 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.34 / defence 0.77 against Pacific FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 60% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 14%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 58%, Pacific FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pacific FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.66 PPG, Pacific FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.