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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out HFX Wanderers FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 22, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.80 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. HFX Wanderers FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.14 / defence 0.72 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 58% | Draw 27% | HFX Wanderers FC 15%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 53%, HFX Wanderers FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Forge (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights