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Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out HFX Wanderers FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat HFX Wanderers FC 2-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.23 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 39% | Draw 30% | HFX Wanderers FC 31%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 56%, HFX Wanderers FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Forge 1.63 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights