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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Forge cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atlético Ottawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Atlético Ottawa 2-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.79 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.20 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 49% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 24%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 53%, Atlético Ottawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Forge 1.80 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights