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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat Forge 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Forge 1-2 at Tim Hortons Field, Semi-finals, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.66 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.93 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.17 / defence 0.63 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.16 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 52% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 19%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Atlético Ottawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 53%, Atlético Ottawa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Forge 1.86 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights