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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Forge cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atlético Ottawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat Atlético Ottawa 2-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 19, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.34 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.21 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.16 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Forge 37% | Draw 32% | Atlético Ottawa 31%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 56%, Atlético Ottawa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Forge's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Forge 1.88 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights