Cavalry FC 5-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Sunday 2 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 7W 3D 0L at ATCO Field — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Cavalry FC's favour (2.20 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, York United in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Cavalry FC, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings against York United — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jun 2026, ended 5–1 with Cavalry FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cavalry FC and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 52% versus York United 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 57% | York United 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.83 xG and York United 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.014 / defence 0.992 | York United attack 0.981 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 28 York United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | York United 24%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | York United 4.17. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 70% | York United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | York United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Cavalry FC 1.83 / York United 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.014 / def 0.992 | York United attack 0.981 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
York United xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 5 - 0 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 50% chance of winning, York United a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
Record (9 meetings): Cavalry FC 6W | Draws 1 | York United 2W.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. York United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.98x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.80
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.23
York United xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
4%
25.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.23 for York United, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 22W 11D 9L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 13W 13D 16L from 42 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.26 PPG from 19 outings (13W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, York United have gone 3W 8D 8L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.43 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 22W 11D 9L in their last 42 games (1.83 PPG), while York United have gone 13W 13D 16L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.26 PPG; York United away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, York United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 53%, York United 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cavalry FC) and 53% (York United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; York United in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cavalry FC's games and 63% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Cavalry FC's matches and 53% of York United's.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, York United in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 5-0 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.83 xG and York United 1.23 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against York United attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | York United 24%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 57%, York United 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.