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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Cavalry FC 0-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 16, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.70 xG and York United 1.30 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.89 against York United attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 45% | Draw 28% | York United 27%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 48%, York United 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

York United's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.80 PPG, York United 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights