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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Vancouver FC 5-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 5-4 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 19, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.59 xG and Vancouver FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vancouver FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.82 against Vancouver FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.24, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 23%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, Vancouver FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights