Cavalry FC 1-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 38%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at ATCO Field, Cavalry FC have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vancouver FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Vancouver FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Vancouver FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cavalry FC, 0 for Vancouver FC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 62% versus Vancouver FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 54% | Vancouver FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.21 xG and Vancouver FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.028 / defence 0.965 | Vancouver FC attack 0.946 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.400. Data: 29 Cavalry FC games / 30 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 35% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Vancouver FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vancouver FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 80% | Vancouver FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 35% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Cavalry FC 1.21 / Vancouver FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.028 / def 0.965 | Vancouver FC attack 0.946 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Vancouver FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC 1 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 35% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Record (3 meetings): Cavalry FC 1W | Draws 2 | Vancouver FC 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.95x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.69
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.28
Vancouver FC xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.28 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 31W 14D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Vancouver FC's form line: 15W 14D 27L from 56 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.04 PPG from 28 outings (16W 9D 3L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 6W 7D 15L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.02 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 31W 14D 11L in their last 56 games (1.91 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 15W 14D 27L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.04 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
5
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 68%, Vancouver FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cavalry FC) and 57% (Vancouver FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cavalry FC's games and 54% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cavalry FC's matches and 57% of Vancouver FC's.
Do Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC finished level at 1-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.21 xG and Vancouver FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Vancouver FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 29/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 35% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 38%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 54%, Vancouver FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.