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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat Valour 3-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 24, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 3.13 xG and Valour 1.52 xG, a combined 4.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valour landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against Valour attack 1.21 / defence 1.45, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 69% | Draw 17% | Valour 15%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 68% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 51%, Valour 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Valour's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights