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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat Valour 4-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.13 xG and Valour 1.25 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valour landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.96 against Valour attack 0.94 / defence 1.30, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 58% | Draw 21% | Valour 22%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 54%, Valour 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights