Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Supra du Quebec make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Semi-finals. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.
Supra du Quebec have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Supra du Quebec's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.90 for Supra du Quebec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Supra du Quebec in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cavalry FC 3W, Supra du Quebec 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 1–2 with Supra du Quebec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cavalry FC 55% and Supra du Quebec 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 55% | Supra du Quebec 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.10 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.006 / defence 0.996 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Supra du Quebec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 60% | Supra du Quebec 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Semi-finals | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Cavalry FC 2.10 / Supra du Quebec 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.006 / def 0.996 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at ATCO Field.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec is a Semi-finals fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 59% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
Record (5 meetings): Cavalry FC 3W | Draws 1 | Supra du Quebec 1W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Supra du Quebec's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.26
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
2%
47.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.07 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 18W 6D 5L from 29 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Supra du Quebec, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 12L across 29 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Supra du Quebec heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 11W 3D 0L from 14 games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Supra du Quebec's away record stands at 6W 2D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.69 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec in 69%.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Supra du Quebec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 18W 6D 5L in their last 29 games (2.07 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 12W 5D 12L in their last 29 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Supra du Quebec away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.57 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Supra du Quebec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Supra du Quebec in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 6-0 on 26 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Supra du Quebec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
1
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
From 5 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 3, Supra du Quebec have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Supra du Quebec 2-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Supra du Quebec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Cavalry FC, 79% for Supra du Quebec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Cavalry FC and 71% for Supra du Quebec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Supra du Quebec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cavalry FC's games and 79% of Supra du Quebec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Cavalry FC's matches and 71% of Supra du Quebec's.
Do Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.