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Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Pacific FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 1-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.16 xG and Pacific FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pacific FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.91 against Pacific FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.19, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 66% | Draw 23% | Pacific FC 11%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, Pacific FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (60 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Pacific FC's trading profile (60 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights