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Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 4-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.57 xG and Pacific FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacific FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Pacific FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 43% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 28%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, Pacific FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (60 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Pacific FC's trading profile (60 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights