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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over HFX Wanderers FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 3-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 23, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.71 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 51% | Draw 27% | HFX Wanderers FC 22%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 50%, HFX Wanderers FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights