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Stalemate at Cavalry FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 18, as Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.53 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. HFX Wanderers FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 25%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 47%, HFX Wanderers FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights