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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Forge.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat Forge 4-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 21, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 0.98 xG and Forge 1.56 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Forge attack 1.19 / defence 0.59, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 22% | Draw 29% | Forge 49%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cavalry FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 48%, Forge 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Forge's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.68 PPG, Forge 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Forge (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights