Cavalry FC 1-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Forge travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 June 2024, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Forge away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Cavalry FC) versus 1.80 (Forge). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Cavalry FC trading profile (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 56% versus Forge 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 56% | Forge 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.31 xG and Forge 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.951 / defence 1.063 | Forge attack 1.010 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 0.930. Data: 36 Cavalry FC games / 35 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 40% | Draw 36% | Forge 25%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Forge 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 50% | Forge 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jun 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 40% | Draw 36% | Forge 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Cavalry FC 1.31 / Forge 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.951 / def 1.063 | Forge attack 1.010 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.550 / away 0.930 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Forge xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Forge kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Forge kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 8 June 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Cavalry FC 1 - 0 Forge.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Forge part of?
Cavalry FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 40% chance of winning, Forge a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cavalry FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (0.95) and Forge's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
40%
2.51
36%
2.80
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.31
1.00
Forge xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
7%
15.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.00 for Forge, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 31W 13D 17L from 61 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 29W 15D 17L across 61 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.74 PPG, Forge on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 21W 4D 6L from 31 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Forge's away record stands at 15W 6D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 31W 13D 17L in their last 61 games (1.74 PPG), while Forge have gone 29W 15D 17L in their last 61 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Forge away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.16 PPG; Forge away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Forge in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
3
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Forge have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 55%, Forge 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cavalry FC) and 45% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Forge in 42%; Forge in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 39% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 45% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Forge tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Forge in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Forge 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Forge 1-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.31 xG and Forge 1.00 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Forge landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Forge attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 40% | Draw 36% | Forge 25%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 56%, Forge 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Forge's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.74 PPG, Forge 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.