🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cavalry FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 0-2 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 13, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.51 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.15 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.82 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 45% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 28%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 53%, Atlético Ottawa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Atlético Ottawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights