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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cavalry FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 1-3 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.23 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.64 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.27 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 28% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 46%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 53%, Atlético Ottawa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Atlético Ottawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights