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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

TD Place Stadium plays host to Atlético Ottawa versus Supra du Quebec in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Wednesday 10 June 2026 at 00:00 UTC.

Form

Atlético Ottawa (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TD Place Stadium.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Atlético Ottawa 1W, Supra du Quebec 0W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Atlético Ottawa winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 2.08 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.999 / defence 0.958 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Atlético Ottawa games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 60% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 16%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Supra du Quebec 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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