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Stalemate at Atlético Ottawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Atlético Ottawa and York United drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.82 xG and York United 1.21 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.8 short of their projected output. York United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.25 / defence 0.86 against York United attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 50% | Draw 25% | York United 24%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 50%, York United 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

York United's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.74 PPG, York United 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights