🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat York United 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat York United 3-2 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.11 xG and York United 1.41 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against York United attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 29% | Draw 29% | York United 43%, with York United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 43%, York United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

York United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.40 PPG, York United 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights