🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC finished level at 1-1 at TD Place Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.81 xG and Vancouver FC 1.19 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 50% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 23%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 52%, Vancouver FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights