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Stalemate at Atlético Ottawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 2.21 xG and Vancouver FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.09 / defence 0.76 against Vancouver FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 61% | Draw 24% | Vancouver FC 16%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 52%, Vancouver FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights