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Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vancouver FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Vancouver FC 3-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 2.45 xG and Vancouver FC 1.42 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Vancouver FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.28, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 59% | Draw 21% | Vancouver FC 20%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 50%, Vancouver FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Vancouver FC's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights