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Dominant Atlético Ottawa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Valour 3-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 2.93 xG and Valour 1.26 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valour landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.39 / defence 1.16 against Valour attack 0.85 / defence 1.40, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 71% | Draw 17% | Valour 13%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 45%, Valour 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights