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Dominant Atlético Ottawa run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Valour.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Valour 5-2 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.82 xG and Valour 1.29 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.36 / defence 1.04 against Valour attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 47% | Draw 28% | Valour 25%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 45%, Valour 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights