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Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Pacific FC 2-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 2.39 xG and Pacific FC 0.91 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.11 / defence 0.86 against Pacific FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 69% | Draw 20% | Pacific FC 12%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 50%, Pacific FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pacific FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights