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Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Pacific FC 3-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.85 xG and Pacific FC 1.33 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.26 / defence 1.08 against Pacific FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 48% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 26%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 43%, Pacific FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Pacific FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.40 PPG, Pacific FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights