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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out HFX Wanderers FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 at TD Place Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.78 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. HFX Wanderers FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 49% | Draw 27% | HFX Wanderers FC 24%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 51%, HFX Wanderers FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights