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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atlético Ottawa and HFX Wanderers FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Atlético Ottawa and HFX Wanderers FC drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.39 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 42% | Draw 30% | HFX Wanderers FC 28%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 44%, HFX Wanderers FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.40 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights