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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atlético Ottawa and Forge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Atlético Ottawa and Forge drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.24 xG and Forge 1.72 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.35 / defence 1.02 against Forge attack 1.25 / defence 0.62, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 27% | Draw 25% | Forge 48%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 54%, Forge 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Forge's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.70 PPG, Forge 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights