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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Atlético Ottawa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cavalry FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 3-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.64 xG and Cavalry FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cavalry FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.04 / defence 0.83 against Cavalry FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 50% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 20%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 50%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.72 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights