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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC finished level at 2-2 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.39 xG and Cavalry FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.13 / defence 0.80 against Cavalry FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.79, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 47% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 22%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 49%, Cavalry FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.71 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights