Vitoria 1-3 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Manoel Barradas plays host to Vitoria versus Sao Paulo in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sao Paulo's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Sao Paulo have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.07 xG and Sao Paulo 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.843 / defence 1.216 | Sao Paulo attack 1.072 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.062. Data: 3 Vitoria games / 42 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 27% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 42%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Sao Paulo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 27% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Vitoria 1.07 / Sao Paulo 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.843 / def 1.216 | Sao Paulo attack 1.072 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sao Paulo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Vitoria vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
Vitoria 1 - 3 Sao Paulo.
Where is Vitoria vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Sao Paulo part of?
Vitoria vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 27% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vitoria and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Sao Paulo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitoria and Sao Paulo in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Sao Paulo away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vitoria's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (1.07x) against Vitoria's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 3/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
27%
3.69
31%
3.23
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.46
1.39
Sao Paulo xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.39 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Pre-Season
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Vitoria go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitoria have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Vitoria
0
Draws
3
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Sao Paulo?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 2, Sao Paulo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Vitoria 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sao Paulo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vitoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Vitoria 1-3 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.07 xG and Sao Paulo 1.39 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sao Paulo outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against Sao Paulo attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 3/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 27% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 42%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.