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Shock result as Vitoria defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at Barradao, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 0.96 xG and RB Bragantino 1.10 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against RB Bragantino attack 1.24 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 31% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 38%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Vitoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 46%, RB Bragantino 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.13 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitoria win broke the near-deadlock. Vitoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights