Vitoria 1-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitoria at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estádio Manoel Barradas to face Vitoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vitoria's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitoria's home record at Estádio Manoel Barradas: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Juventude have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Vitoria against 1.10 for Juventude. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vitoria 0W, Juventude 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vitoria — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Juventude — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitoria 54% and Juventude 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 50% | Juventude 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.33 xG and Juventude 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.816 / defence 1.246 | Juventude attack 0.813 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.030. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Vitoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Vitoria games / 26 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 43% | Draw 28% | Juventude 29%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Juventude 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitoria as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Vitoria 50% | Juventude 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 43% | Draw 28% | Juventude 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Vitoria 1.33 / Juventude 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.816 / def 1.246 | Juventude attack 0.813 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Juventude xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Juventude kick off?
Vitoria vs Juventude kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Juventude?
Vitoria 1 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Vitoria vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Juventude part of?
Vitoria vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 43% chance of winning, Juventude a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vitoria and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Vitoria 0W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Vitoria and Juventude in?
Vitoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Juventude (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.82x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.81x) against Vitoria's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.62
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.37
1.04
Juventude xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.04 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitoria come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 4D 15L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (8W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Vitoria against 1.23 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vitoria's home form reads 4W 2D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.54 points per game from 13 outings (1W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitoria are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Juventude in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 7W 4D 15L in their last 26 games (0.96 PPG), while Juventude have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Juventude away?
Vitoria's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.08 PPG; Juventude away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitoria have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vitoria
2
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Juventude?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 1, Juventude have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Vitoria 2-2 Juventude.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Vitoria, 77% for Juventude — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Vitoria) and 54% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Vitoria have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Vitoria's games and 77% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitoria vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Vitoria's recent games and 54% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Juventude tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Juventude in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitoria edge out Juventude 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Juventude 1-0 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.33 xG and Juventude 1.04 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Juventude landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.82 / defence 1.25 against Juventude attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 43% | Draw 28% | Juventude 29%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventude's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitoria 0.96 PPG, Juventude 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitoria win broke the near-deadlock. Vitoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.