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Prediction vindicated as Vitoria edge out Internacional 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria beat Internacional 1-0 at Barradao, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.30 xG and Internacional 0.94 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Internacional landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Internacional attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 45% | Draw 28% | Internacional 27%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 46%, Internacional 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Internacional's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.13 PPG, Internacional 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitoria win broke the near-deadlock. Vitoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights